Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a seventh consecutive rainfall-deficient winter this year, with a 65 per cent departure from the normal.The Kishtwar and Shopian districts recorded the alarming deficit this winter at 90 per cent and 82 per cent, respectively.
“Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh straight winter rainfall deficit, with the core winter period December 2025 to February 2026 ending at a 65 per cent departure from the normal,” the data gathered by independent forecaster Faizan Arif suggests.Arif said the region received just 100.6 mm of precipitation against a normal of 284.9 mm during the three months.
The independent forecaster said that December, with a departure of 78 per cent, saw the actual rainfall of 13.0 mm against the normal of 59.4 mm.January witnessed the actual of 73.4 mm against the normal of 95.1 mm — a departure of 23 per cent, he said, adding that some Western Disturbance activity in the month prevented a total seasonal collapse.
With a departure of 89 per cent, in February, the actual rainfall was 14.2 mm compared to the normal 130.4 mm.”February turned disastrous. With nearly 90 per cent deficit, it was one of the driest February months in the recent record. This sharp collapse dragged the entire winter seasonal total down to minus 65 per cent,” the forecaster said.
According to district-wise data, Kishtwar district in the region was the highest rainfall deficit this winter at 90 per cent, followed by Shopian at 82 per cent.Srinagar and Jammu districts remained 64 per cent rainfall deficit, Arif added.According to him, the data confirms that every winter since 2019-20 has ended below normal, making this the seventh consecutive deficient winter season in the state.
The winter of 2019-20 saw a 20 per cent deficit, 2020-21 (37 per cent), 2021-22 (8 per cent), 2022-23 (34 per cent), 2023-24 (54 per cent), and 2024-25 (45 per cent), he said.Before that, the winter of 2018-19 had a 36 per cent surplus precipitation, with 2016-17 of 29 per cent, and 2012-13 (14 per cent), he added.The data highlights a sharp drying trend in core winter precipitation, Arif said.
The independent forecaster said, “With December almost dry, January subpar, and February collapsing nearly 90 per cent below normal, the snowpack generation window has weakened substantially.””Such back-to-back winter deficits reduce the natural meltwater buffer that Kashmir traditionally depends on during late spring, summer and autumn,” he said.
Arif asserted that the seven consecutive deficient winters indicate that this is not random variability alone, but a sustained shift in seasonal precipitation patterns.The repeated winter shortfalls since 2019-20 suggest that there is an increase in the variability of strength and frequency of the Western Disturbances, he said.Arif also highlighted a greater intra-seasonal concentration of rainfall events and longer dry spells between active phases, he said.
